RALEIGH (Nov. 6, 2020) – The more things change – even after millions in campaign spending – the more they stay the same: Democrat Roy Cooper will remain governor, and Republicans will keep their majorities in the NC House and Senate for the next two years.
That means Republicans will control the drawing of new legislative and congressional districts next year after results from the 2020 census are complete. Though we’re well aware that those districts could be challenged in court, they also could potentially stay in place until 2031.1
Republicans will not enjoy a supermajority that would let them override Cooper’s vetoes, however. That empowers Cooper and makes him more of a player in negotiations over the state budget.
NO MATTER WHO’S IN CHARGE next year, though, the 2021-22 budget could be excruciating for both the state and public higher education in North Carolina – especially if there’s no further federal relief for the coronavirus pandemic.
Because Cooper and legislative leaders could not agree last year on a 2019-21 budget, the state is still spending at 2018 levels. The income-tax dollars the state received for the current 2020-21 budget year were based on North Carolinians’ 2019 income, which was relatively healthy.
But officials worry that 2021-22 – which will rely on income and sales-tax revenues in 2020 – could be devastating for our public colleges and universities.
Jennifer Haygood, the UNC System’s chief financial officer, noted last month that the state’s 7.3% unemployment rate in September meant 350,000 people in the state were still unemployed.
“(Those are) people who will not be paying the taxes that they were pre-recession,” Haygood said.
“The year ahead will bring deep financial and operational challenges,” UNC System President Peter Hans told the UNC Board of Governors.
“This pandemic will affect state revenues for years, and the UNC System will not be immune to those impacts,” warned Board of Governors Chair Randy Ramsey.2
MEANWHILE, THE BALANCE OF POWER between the General Assembly and Cooper will remain largely the same as it’s been the past two years.
An editorial Wednesday in The News & Observer of Raleigh and The Charlotte Observer noted how North Carolina voters continue to choose divided government:
“In fact, our state government looks a lot like it did the day before the election — a Democratic governor facing a Republican General Assembly that doesn’t wield a veto-proof majority. It’s neither blue nor red — but it’s also not the kind of purple that leads to good governing….
“There was no blue wave, but there wasn’t really a red one, either. We’re stuck with each other, but we hope that doesn’t mean we’re stuck.”3
Though budget deliberations last year ended in stalemate over Medicaid expansion and K-12 teacher pay, Republican Senate leader Phil Berger told reporters Wednesday that he congratulates Cooper and looks forward to “getting more things done in the next two years than we did in the last two years.”
Similarly, House Speaker Tim Moore said he congratulated Cooper and “had a great conversation” about working together for the good of North Carolina.4
We hope that’s a positive sign.
North Carolina closely reflects the sharp partisan divisions of this country. But this is a critical time for our state. The pandemic created both a health crisis and a financial crisis for our state and our nation. This is not a time for partisan politics.
It’s time our leaders put aside party and work for the good of this state and its citizens on issues such as Medicaid expansion, investment in pre-kindergarten and yes, investment in the higher-education institutions that prepare our citizens for the jobs of the future.
1 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/statehouse-elections-2020-434108; https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article246987667.html.
2 https://hew.aveltsagency.com/2020/10/unc-system-difficult-2021-22/.
3 https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article246958417.html.
4 https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article246965327.html.
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