RALEIGH (Aug. 13, 2020) – Welcome to 2030.

The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated change in North Carolina workplaces to where it would have been in 2030 without the pandemic, NC State University economist Michael Walden told a virtual audience at the NC Chamber’s annual Education & Workforce Conference.

Though jobs in North Carolina food preparation and service were projected to grow by nearly 50,000 from 2017 to 2026, Walden said, after COVID-19 outbreaks at the state’s large meat-processing plants, he already sees more automation developing in that industry.

Even before the pandemic, North Carolina was projected to see the greatest growth (37% by 2026) among high-paying jobs that require advanced degrees, and the least (28%) in jobs that require only a high-school diploma and some college.

The result will be greater income inequality, Walden said, because middle-income jobs aren’t growing as quickly.

Health-care specialists – which were projected to grow by 40,000 jobs by 2026 – should continue to be in demand, he said.

And while manufacturing jobs were projected to shrink by 5,000 due to improved technology, the state could see a resurgence in some forms of manufacturing – especially personal protective equipment.

“The virus has exposed our vulnerability as a country to relying on other countries for production of medical supplies,” Walden said. “We don’t want to have that situation if we’re in another pandemic.”

Some of the jobs lost to the COVID recession are returning, he said, but not all will. And some will return in a different form as North Carolinians have grown more accustomed to teleworking.

“They’re not necessarily the same kinds of jobs,” Walden said. There will be implications for work, services, housing, offices, work/life balance and households.

“Office work will change. We’re probably going to have a reduction (of growth) in commercial office space,” he said.

Wariness of crowded urban spaces and the ability to telecommute could even lead to a revival of North Carolinians who choose to live in small towns and rural areas – if they have reliable broadband access, Walden said.

He noted Spacex’s efforts to develop Starlink, a satellite network to deliver broadband service to remote areas.

In such a rapidly shifting labor market, education will face enormous pressure to train or retrain workers, Walden said.

“This is absolutely, positively going to be crucial,” he said.

“Education’s going to have to change… It’s going to have to be faster. It’s going to have to be focused. It’s going to have to be affordable. It’s going to have to be flexible.”

Because many mature workers won’t have time to pursue a four-year degree, Walden said, apprenticeships could take on new importance.

Walden also noted that a larger percentage of Black and Hispanic workers have low-paying jobs that are more likely to be replaced by technology. The state’s education infrastructure needs to be ready to retrain those workers for better-paying jobs, he said.

“I don’t think we want to be passive here,” Walden said. “I think that’s going to be crucial for our economy.”