RALEIGH – Once again, the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy is pushing a flawed idea – a deferred admission plan at state universities that legislators agreed to postpone this year.

Seeking to save money, improve graduation rates and reduce student debt, state legislators adopted the NC Guaranteed Admission Plan (NCGAP) in 2015.

Under the proposal, each university would direct a percentage of its applicants who meet admission standards but are among the least qualified to first earn an associate degree at a community college before they can enroll at the four-year institution.  So you’re in – but you’re not.

In short, NCGAP would apply a one-size-fits-all approach to every University of North Carolina campus – even its flagships at Chapel Hill and NC State.

Make no mistake – University officials want to see their students graduate. In fact, graduation rates in the UNC System already exceed the national average by nearly 10 percentage points,  but degree completion remains important for student success and financial considerations.

The UNC and NC Community College Systems hired RTI International to study NCGAP, and RTI made a variety of findings in March:

• NCGAP would likely reduce the cost to the state and students, as well as reduce student loan debt.
• It would likely result in fewer bachelor’s degrees and, as a result, have an adverse effect on the state economy because students would have less earning power.
• It would disproportionately affect poor, rural and minority students and could jeopardize the future of some historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs).
• In many cases, it would simply shuffle students between UNC campuses.

RTI found that 89% of in-state students in one sample would be admitted to another UNC institution.

“We can reasonably assume, given the stated preference for a four-year institution, that the majority of these students would decline participation in NCGAP and simply enroll in another UNC institution or an out-of-state or private four-year institution,” the study found.  “Students may opt to enroll in more expensive private, not-for-profit, for-profit or out-of-state institutions.”

Students have choices, and if a student chooses to go out of state or to a private university, she might well wind up with more – not less – debt.

Starting  in 2008, the UNC Board of Governors increased admission standards over five years, raising the minimum high-school GPA requirement from 2.0 to 2.5.  The University system saw a 5% increase in four-year graduation rates over five years as the reforms began to take effect.

The full impact of the increased standards won’t be known until the graduating classes of 2017 and 2019, though, so RTI recommended that officials give the reforms time to be implemented and assessed.

So legislators asked UNC President Margaret Spellings and the Board of Governors to develop a plan by January with degree-completion targets for each university in the system.  That’s what University officials did this month, producing a 64-page report with detailed plans tailored to each institution.

The Pope Center responded with a post headlined “The Higher Education Establishment’s Self-Interest Goes Unchecked – Again.”  The piece described the strategies as “academic pampering,” a “failed approach of more special treatment and handholding,” and a bid to keep state enrollment dollars.

NCGAP might save money in the short term, but as RTI suggested, it might well cost the state in the long run by producing fewer degrees that increase graduates’ earnings.

An increasing number of students already choose to start in community college and transfer to a four-year university, and an agreement between the University and Community College systems is designed to make such transfers easier.  Programs at UNC Chapel Hill, UNC Charlotte, NC Central and Winston-Salem State already offer guaranteed admission for successful community-college students.

Many students choose that path. But forcing them to community college limits their choices in the marketplace.

As RTI pointed out, in many cases it would simply force students who intend to attend a four-year school to choose a different one – and if they go to a private school or out of state, to increase their debt.